Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 32.928199 39.043678 45.738930 53.581847 62.484664 72.243699 83.716415
2025-02-02 25.384657 33.901784 44.110729 57.107166 73.058337 91.838011 115.446657
2025-02-09 20.423899 29.946570 42.184091 58.756101 80.270839 106.895771 141.928932
2025-02-16 16.861513 26.825226 40.418516 59.801982 86.145484 120.068323 166.325073
2025-02-23 13.882686 23.848454 38.218378 59.688441 90.074172 130.577358 187.517879
2025-03-02 11.294222 20.923718 35.573369 58.450759 92.069896 138.319935 205.151755
2025-03-09 9.486474 18.863154 33.851539 58.212173 95.227423 147.574968 225.036091
2025-03-16 7.422016 15.977365 30.420713 54.932597 93.524667 149.704491 234.907435
2025-03-23 6.615996 15.152585 30.182515 56.535641 99.136073 162.481051 260.282052
2025-03-30 5.535908 13.607064 28.504715 55.584671 100.637027 169.177187 277.036785
2025-04-06 5.148190 13.354281 29.048672 58.348489 108.129371 185.126632 307.965159
2025-04-13 4.026116 11.344683 26.114953 54.807100 105.084061 184.741455 314.357138
2025-04-20 3.581815 10.811726 26.059144 56.638494 111.548275 200.199468 346.676768
2025-04-27 3.350577 10.746219 26.950829 60.349733 121.575534 221.996871 390.052287
2025-05-04 2.968572 10.216507 26.808235 62.075519 128.235386 238.661195 426.068093
2025-05-11 2.591125 9.598328 26.376666 63.169182 133.799010 253.740495 460.120683
2025-05-18 2.187889 8.792382 25.399318 63.050473 137.110121 265.172515 488.705694
2025-05-25 1.782064 7.846281 23.937340 61.756294 138.101626 272.661736 511.088639
2025-06-01 1.497564 7.182396 23.030256 61.506791 140.994619 283.472613 539.268993
2025-06-08 1.125768 6.068759 20.787839 58.076273 137.442208 282.797500 548.148113
2025-06-15 1.009538 5.846392 20.830423 59.753306 144.048691 300.360744 588.452786
2025-06-22 0.821410 5.258206 19.768685 58.758492 145.179275 308.091266 612.152402
2025-06-29 0.772364 5.243290 20.328757 61.649346 154.437449 330.966526 662.755565